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Larger Rise in Stockpiles Than Forecasts Weigh on Oil Prices

02 March 2018

This is coming as the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that the United States would overtake Russian Federation as the world's biggest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, as the country's shale oil boom continues to upend global markets.

The lower freight costs afforded by the economies of scale of the VLCC cargo opens up the global market for US-produced crude oil. Brent, the global benchmark, lost 87 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.63 a barrel.

It seems that only a stronger dollar, which could reduce demand and a surprise jump in US production could derail the rally at this time, especially since recent data shows hedge funds returning to the long side of the market.

Data released last week by the US Energy Information Administration showed a surprise draw in crude inventories. "We see more downside for oil". "S. production breaking through the 10 million barrel per day level", said McCarthy. Not only does LOOP mean that more volume can be moved, but using larger but fewer tankers could also cut transit costs, adding to the appeal of American crude.

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Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish wagers on U.S. crude oil for the first time in four weeks, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

The prices of oil remained sturdy for three consecutive weeks in Saudi Arabia.

Birol said he did not see U.S. oil production peaking before 2020, and that he did not expect a decline in the next four to five years.

But there's one thing that mainstream seems to be getting wrong. And that means even minus 70 thousand barrels of oil on the market.

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WTI light sweet oil was down 11 cents at USD62.87 a barrel, having traded between USD60 and USD66 for the past month. It is a sort of self-limiting phenomenon: the wide price differential led to a surge in exports, which helped eliminate the huge price difference, which in turn could put a ceiling on exports.

USA oil is also increasingly being exported, including to the world's biggest and fastest growing markets in Asia, eating away at OPEC and Russian market share. The export machine is here to stay in some form or another, particularly with new pipelines coming online, along with retooled export facilities capable of handling more shipments.

News of a production halt at Libya's 70,000 barrel-a-day El-Feel field helped cap a weekly drop of more than 3 percent, after a report on Thursday showed storage tanks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub are at their lowest levels since 2014 as exports of USA crude surge.

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Larger Rise in Stockpiles Than Forecasts Weigh on Oil Prices