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Above-Average Hurricane Season Predicted For 2018

06 April 2018

So the landfall probability forecasts are now above average as well as the forecasts for number of storms and hurricanes, hence the overall forecast prediction is erring towards a more active Atlantic tropical storm season than normal in 2018.

The university, the home of late hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, released its 35th annual preseason predictions on Thursday and is leaning toward a "slightly" above-average season.

On average, there is generally 12 named storms and six of those become hurricanes.

Klotzbach, a research scientist, pointed a year ago in a season wrap-up to "the record-breaking levels of hurricane activity that occurred during September" with Harvey, Irma and Maria, "the most notable storms of 2017, leaving paths of death and destruction in their wake".

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The annual study, which started in 1984, produced a variety of interesting stats for the upcoming season, including the probability of major hurricanes making landfall.

With this year's hurricane season less than 60 days away, the first credible forecast is out. Seven of those could be hurricanes and three could be major (average is two major hurricanes).

Those numbers would make 2018 a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June to the end of November.

Long Island was pretty much spared a year ago - which marked the fifth anniversary of superstorm Sandy - though areas of the South Shore and East End in September did experience high surf, coastal flooding and dune erosion from what had been Hurricane Jose, which lingered for days just to the southeast.

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As for the rest of the season, the area from Houston to Florida and up through the Outer Banks of North Carolina will be more favorable for direct impacts from storms, AccuWeather said. Waters in other parts of the Atlantic remained cooler than average. The average risk is 52 percent.

"Hurricanes have definitely gotten people's attention after what happened previous year", Phil Klotzbach, a CSU research scientist, said in an interview Thursday.

On September 10, Hurricane Irma hit Florida, eventually cutting power to more than 7.7 million homes and businesses, about 73% of the states' load, and it also affected power customers in Alabama and Georgia. Speaking to reporters last December, former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency Craig Fugate stated, "Floridians must brace for storms that will be stronger, have longer periods at top speeds and bring more rain than in the past because of the changing climate".

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Above-Average Hurricane Season Predicted For 2018